Footy Strategy: In-Play Strategy

If you have not already done so, please read our Rules page before placing any bets.

Thorough research is essential before placing any bets. You can do this research using any football statistics/results service, but our favourite is FlashScore.com.

Over the past few years in-play betting has revolutionised the world of online gambling. In-play has widened the number of available markets, gives greater interaction between the gambler and event and allows the gambler to evaluate their team's performance in real-time. These factors combined make bets placed in-play potentially more profitable than bets placed pre-match, but betting in-play can also lead to quicker losses. For this reason it is probably safer to stick to pre-match betting unless you are very disciplined in sticking to your financial limits.

When betting in play we always use Betfair. Betfair is not a bookmaker in the traditional sense, but rather a betting exchange where one gambler is pitted against another. It allows you to bet for (back) or against (lay) a certain outcome in your chosen market. It also allows you to set your own odds for a particular outcome. Using Betfair is a science in its own right, so we suggest you visit their site for further information.

When placing in-play bets there are 2 main strategies we use:

1. Betting on slow scoring winners

In this strategy we assume that a good team, which has struggled to score in the first half, will recover and win the match in the second half.

(a) View the matches in-play using FlashScore.com or similar. Identify likely winning teams using the Six Steps to Success mentioned earlier, but this time you are looking for likely winning teams that have not scored in the opening half of the match. Because half the match has already gone the in-play odds of these teams winning will often be much longer than the pre-match odds, which means any winning bet will be more profitable.

(b) View the in-play statistics for your chosen matches. Again FlashScore.com offers a "Live Centre" full of real-time statistics for a lot of matches. Pay particular attention to the following points:

Possession: Your likely winning team should have high possession, probably 60% or more.
Goal Attempts: Your likely winning team should have far more goal attempts than their opponents. This indicates a team that is attacking well.
Goalkeeper Saves: Your likely winning team should have far fewer goalkeeper saves than their opponents. This indicates a team that is defending well.
Bookings: Your likely winning team should have no red cards and fewer yellow cards than their opponents. Teams with bookings obviously play far more cautiously than those that don't.

It is often possible to gauge the flow of the match by looking at the in-play statistics several times.

Your aim is to place your bet before your likely winning team scores.
Never place bets in the opening 5 minutes of the second half. If the opposing team has underperformed in the first half, they may well start the second half much more positively. Before betting you need to be sure that the opposing team's poor performance is being carried into the second half.
Statistically most goals are scored in the last quarter of the match, but you have to be careful not to wait too long before backing your likely winning team. If you wait too long, and your likely winning team scores in the meantime, the odds of them winning will collapse and any profit will be considerably reduced.
Using the Betfair exchange you can set your own odds and once they are matched your bet will be placed automatically. We often set odds of 3.00 - 4.00 for our likely winning team and just wait for the bet to be placed. Another advantage of Betfair is that any pending bet will be cancelled if a goal is scored or red card awarded before it is placed.

2. Betting on losing winners

In this strategy we assume that a good team, which is already a goal behind in the first half, will recover to win the match in the second half.

(a) View the matches in-play using FlashScore.com or similar. Identify likely winning teams using the Six Steps to Success mentioned earlier, but this time you are looking for likely winning teams that are a goal behind. Ideally your team will be 1 - 0 down in the first half. Because your team is already trailing the in-play odds of it winning will often be much longer than the pre-match odds, which means any winning bet will be more profitable.

Possession: Your likely winning team should have high possession, probably 60% or more.
Goal Attempts: Your likely winning team should have far more goal attempts than their opponents. This indicates a team that is attacking well.
Goalkeeper Saves: Your likely winning team should have far fewer goalkeeper saves than their opponents. This indicates a team that is defending well.
Bookings: Your likely winning team should have no red cards and fewer yellow cards than their opponents. Teams with bookings obviously play far more cautiously than those that don't.

If all of these conditions are satisfied then it is likely that your team can still pull back a win.

Your aim is to place your bet before your likely winning team scores.
Try to place your bet as close to half time as possible. If your likely winning team has underperformed, as they probably have, then they may start the second half very strongly and score quickly. If that happens the odds of them winning will collapse and any profit will be considerably reduced.
Using the Betfair exchange you can set your own odds and once they are matched your bet will be placed automatically. We often set odds of 3.00 - 4.00 for our likely winning team and just wait for the bet to be placed. Another advantage of Betfair is that any pending bet will be cancelled if a goal is scored or red card awarded before it is placed.

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In-Play Strategy